Jon Hargis and Tom Njunge, welcome to your nightmare. Nick Reed is coming to Tempe.

Uhhh…let’s just get past this: pronounce it “nun-gee”.

Hargis and Njunge have started the past two ASU games at left and right tackle respectively. I’m going to assume they’ll start at the tackle spots Saturday ‘cause I can’t find anything that suggests otherwise. This week their challenge is to protect QB Rudy Carpenter from taking a double-digit ass whoopin’.

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Here are the games for this week:

Texas Tech at Kansas

Oklahoma State at Texas

Georgia at LSU

Penn State at Ohio State

Nevada at Hawaii

Happy picking

Bah. It seems like almost everyone but me had a pretty easy time with the picks this week. Congrats to Russ who was the only community member to submit a perfect slate. On the other hand, there were three posters who managed to do worse than I did; QuackinAK, SeattleDucks, and theshwags managed only one correct pick.  There were a total of 54 entries.  Here's the complete distribution this week :

Correct Picks	# Occurrences
5	1
4	22
3	20
2	8
1	3
0	0

The easiest game this week?  How about all four non Pac-10 games?  The community did a pretty remarkable job in those four games.  On the flip side, only nine entries correctly picked the Arizona victory.      Here's the complete breakdown:

Winner	Correct Picks
Texas	41
Ohio State	35
Arizona	9
Colorado	42
Miami	45

As always, the complete scoreboard is after the jump...

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Holy cow is the Pac-10 a mess. Beyond USC, there is absolutely zero consistency. Cal has gone on the road against two decent teams and lost both times, in fairly convincing fashion. OSU has gone on the road against 3 decent to great teams, and lost them all. Stanford has won all their home games, only winning on the road against Washington. Arizona, lost to Stanford on the road, while dominating Cal at home. Oregon could barely pull out a victory against a very bad Purdue team, and then got obliterated by USC on the road.

In case you didn't notice, there is a pattern going on.

Outside of USC and the Washington schools, there are no gimme games for any Pac-10 team. So, the Holiday Bowl (and possibly Rose Bowl) birth will come down to actually shows up for games, and who executes, especially on the road.

1. USC
2. OSU
3. Cal
4. Oregon
5. Arizona
6. Stanford
7. UCLA
8. Arizona State
9. Washington
10. Washington State

The Blogpoll ballot and some comments are after the jump...

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Jared has already made fun of me this week, so that must mean it's time for the blogger picks! When the contest ends and I am atop the scoreboard, I want everyone to remember that this is the week that things changed. Or, maybe not. On to the picks.

Missouri at Texas

Dave: Texas
Missouri has no defense. Texas has a very good one. That's enough for me.

Jared: Texas
Texas' defense is better than you think. While they gave up 35 to Oklahoma, they shut down the running game, which one the game in the end. They will do the same against Missouri, and Chase Daniel will have to try to win the game. Missouri has not won a game in the last 2 years against a top flight defense, and they won't this week either.

Nick: Missouri
Which QB do you trust more? Daniel is coming off a terrible performance in a loss against Oklahoma State while McCoy led his team to a huge victory over Oklahoma. However, while McCoy has put up some gaudy numbers this season, it has been against a soft schedule up until last week. I look for Daniel and the Tigers to bounce back this week after being upset by Oklahoma State last week.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Dave: Ohio State
Don't look at records. These are two football teams that really aren't very good. But it comes down to athletes. And I'm just not sure that Michigan State has the athletes to hang with tOSU.

Jared: Ohio State
Ohio State may not be very good, but I don't think MSU is any better. While Ohio State's offense has been pretty bad, Michigan State has had trouble with any type of spread offense. They have up a TON of yards and points to Indiana. They have also struggled to put points on the board at times. Ohio State has been doing enough to win, on both sides of the ball, and I feel they will this week also.

Nick: Michigan State
First, my condolences to Dazzle who is a diehard Buckeyes fan and will be at this game. I was going to pick tOSU in this game. Then, it hit me -- tOSU is not that good of a football team. The Buckeyes have the 10th worst pass offense in the country and the 10th best total offense in their conference. Furthermore, Pryor has playing like most true freshman: inconsistent. While the Spartan defense has not been overwhelming, I like it more than the tOSU's offense (which managed barely over 200 yards and no TDs against Purdue last week). All this adds up to a Spartan upset.

California at Arizona

Dave: California
I'm not picking Mike Stoops again. Not happening. Oh, and they're finally playing a real team. Mike Stoops against a team with a pulse equals gore and carnage (how have we lost to that clown two years in a row? Damn you knee ligaments).

Jared: California
This could be the type of game that Arizona pulls out, but Cal should be able to run the ball all over Arizona, keeping their offense off the field.

Nick: California
While Arizona boasts the conference's stingiest pass defense (ypg), they rank sixth in terms of run defense (ypg). As long as Best plays effectively after returning from a dislocated shoulder, the Cal running game should have a big day. The matchup for Arizona's passing offense appears to match up well with Cal's pass defense, but Cal's defense has been opportunistic, as it leads the conference with 10 interceptions. I like Cal to win on the road coming off a bye.

Kansas State at Colorado

Dave: Colorado
Very even game, so I'll pick the home team.

Jared: Colorado
Sagarin has these two teams at 56 and 57 in his ratings. Both of them are not very good, though I think Colorado has been more consistent, and a better team overall. At home, they win it.

Nick: Colorado
Bah. I don't know much about either team, but Colorado's resume looks better at this point, with a top-25 win and two top-25 losses. I'll give them the nod at home.

Miami (FL) at Duke

Dave: Miami
Duke is Duke is Duke. It rhymes with my son's name, Luke. But that's where the coolness stops.

Jared: Miami
I thought about picking Duke here, for about 2 seconds. Then I realized, they're Duke.

Nick: Miami
Woohoo! Another fantastic ACC game. Thanks Dave!

Okay, lets see if we can make this happen.

Been in a bit of communication with the Pape Jam guys.  We can get group tickets in the 200 level of the Rose Garden for $22 a pop.  How many of you would be willing to go to the game at that price?

Email me (addictedtoquack@gmail.com)

We probably need 10-20 to make this happen.

--Dave

California Golden Blogs hosting this week.  It was kind of CGB to host on short notice this week.  We tried to get Joe the Plumber, but we could only book him if if we had a place for the presidential candidates to sit while they kissed his ass.  While TwistNHook offered to kick Joe's ass and force him to willingly comply, we decided that it was easier if TwistNHook just hosted himself.  This was mainly to prevent anything to happen to McCain in the collateral damage, lest Sarah Palin become president and force us all to name our children Cashew.  Children of the country owe you, TwistNHook, they owe you more than you can ever know.

On with the roundtable:

1. Is it possible that USC puts itself back in the national title race?  Is it deserving to be back in the national title race? 

Were they ever out of the national title race?  I know that ESPN wanted to push the narrative that OSU knocked the Trojans out of the national title race because it makes for a feel good story, but there is a simple truth to the matter:  one loss doesn't knock you out of the title picture anymore.  If you win the Pac-10 or SEC or Big 12 with one loss, there is a pretty good chance that you are in the top two.  There are just too many good teams, and that number is growing every year.  We've already seen it:  Georgia lost.  Florida lost.  LSU lost.  Oklahoma lost.  Missouri lost.  SC is already back up to fourth in the coaches poll.  Penn State may go undefeated because the Big Ten is so bad, but Alabama and Texas still have a lot of tests to face.

2. The season is 7 weeks old, nearly half over.  What's the biggest surprise in the Pac-10 so far this year?

That we suck.  And by we, I don't mean the Ducks.  I mean the whole fucking conference.  Washington and Washington State are two of the worst BCS schools ever.   They are a complete embarrassment to college football, and would be lucky to compete in the Big Sky.  Oregon State looked thoroughly uncompetitive at Penn State, then found new and innovative ways to blow the game at Utah.  Oregon, which was supposed to have a top five secondary, let the freshman quarterback at Boise State pass for a gazillion yards on them at Autzen.  They currently rank 111 in pass defense.  Cal slept through the loss at Maryland.  Arizona got caught napping by New Mexico, and ASU lost straight up to UNLV.  We're 1-6 against the Mountain West, and would finish with a losing OOC record if SC were to somehow lose to Notre Dame.  We are simply a mediocre conference.

3.  After dispensing with Oregon and Arizona State, USC seems to have righted itself back onto the path towards another Pac-10 championship.  Obviously everyone's looking to Cal as the last serious challenge, while no one expects this weekend's trip to Wazzu to be anything but ugly, but 3 potentially tricky road trips remain:  Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA.  Where are the Trojans most likely to be tripped up?

They won't be.  The OSU game was really the perfect storm.  The fact of the matter is that none of the three teams mentioned above have the talent to knock off an SC and, while Cal has the talent to do so, those chances are very much muted with the game being at the Coliseum.  USC will roll through the rest of the Pac-10 because we're not any good.  Simple as that.

4.  Although it's still too early to make bowl predictions with any sort of accuracy, it seems at this point in the season that the Pac-10 is unlikely to fill its 7 contractual bowl slots.  How many Pac-10 teams do you think will eventually become bowl eligible?

Well, Washington State will obviously be in the Rose Bowl this  year so.......

SC (duh) plays in the Rose, unless the make the national title game.

Cal plays in the Holiday unless they finish 10-2 and can squeeze into the Rose if SC make the NCG.

Oregon finished third, but because they went last year, the Sun Bowl doesn't invite them.  Ducks go to the Emerald Bowl instead.

Beavers finish strong and go to the Sun Bowl.

Mike Stoops keeps his job by guiding a still shitty Arizona team to the Vegas Bowl to get annihilated by Utah or BYU (insert Duck joke here).

And, as long as they don't trip up against UCLA, Stanford goes 6-6 to make the Armed Forces Bowl.

They may get six if Stanford holds up.  UW, WSU, UCLA, and ASU are done.

5.  Arizona State has obviously been a massive disappointment so far this year.  Dennis Erickson has never been one to stay in a "rebuilding situation."  How long do you anticipate Erickson staying for and what can be done for next year to rebound from the disaster that is 08?

Aren't the Raiders already looking for a coach?

BYE will wish it had never been born.  Prepare to die, BYE.

GO DUCKS!!!

--Dave

Wow, its just now really feeling like football season to me.  Again, I think its the weirdness of this season.  But, after the USC and UCLA games, I think I finally have a feel for this team:  mediocre.  Yes, mediocre.  We aren't really good, and aren't really bad.  And I still think we'll finish 8-4.  However, while I picked 8-4 to begin the season, I can't help but be disappointed in that.  Maybe its because the Pac-10 is down this year, maybe its because I expected more from the secondary.  I don't know.  We still have a chance to go on one of those special runs, I just don't see where it comes from at this point.

Oh well, onto the picks:

Missouri at Texas

Ohio State at Michigan State

California at Arizona

Kansas State at Colorado

Miami (FL) at Duke (yes, seriously)

Not a great weekend, and a bye week to boot.

 

This week saw most of the community getting two or three picks correctly (42 out of 55).  There were no perfect scores recorded (on either end of the spectrum), though there were nine people who identified four out of five winners.  Congrats to bradLL99, CarlsbadDuck, inroywetrust, KDean75, Nevaduck, Russ, SeattleDucks, Squishy, and Templar.  And, in a development that is drastically improving the appearance of my overall score, a whopping 40 of our previous contestants did not submit picks this week.  Here's the complete distribution this week:

Correct Picks	# Occurrences
5	0
4	9
3	22
2	20
1	4
0	0

The easiest game this week?  By far, the Penn State victory was correctly picked by an impressive 50 participants.  There were two games that the AtQ community had difficulty with, as both game had only 10 people were able to correctly identify Texas and Stanford as winners.  Here's the complete breakdown:

Winner	Correct Picks
Texas	10
Michigan State	28
Florida	44
Penn State	32
Stanford	10

As always, the complete scoreboard is after the jump...

 

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Well, that was one of the most unexciting football games I've ever watched. A lot of Duck fans are not happy with the performance, and there were definitely highs are lows. Lets look at both:

Offense:

Well, it's nice to have a QB that can run the spread option again. Instead of just turning it into a simple run play, Masoli learned this week that it's OK to take it and run, and this ripped apart the UCLA defense in the 1st quarter. Unfortunately, this was moved away from in the 2nd quarter, leading to some big 3 and outs, but seemed to be successful whenever run.

However, the one running play that I am absolutely hating is our version of the Indy stretch play (I don't know what exactly it is, but this is what I'm calling it), in which the handoff goes to Jeremiah in an attempt to get him outside, with the entire line pulling, and hopefully he'll find a hole and get upfield. Unfortunately, this didn't work. I may be wrong, but I have not seen this play go for any sort of significant gain all year. Purdue jumped all over this, as did UCLA. There is no other threat on this play, and is one of the most predictable that we have fun. I hope this play is never run again. Get the RBs upfield quickly, as opposed to just running toward the sideline.

As good as Masoli looked on the spread option, he looked absolutely terrible in the pocket. After getting some initial running success, he had a complete inability to stand in the pocket. He would constantly flee the pocket to the sides, even if there was little pressure. In some cases, this worked out, but this was a key factor in Oregon being 2-17 on 3rd downs. Oregon got into 14 situations deemed 3rd and long (5+ yards to go), and converted only 2 of these, both on runs. Not one 3rd down was converted by pass.

On top of this, besides the 31 points, Oregon moved the ball in spurts. In some cases, they moved the ball beautiful, getting yardage in chunks, and not even getting to 3rd downs. Other times, it was 3 and out, which happened especially in the 2nd quarter and early 3rd, giving UCLA great field position for their first scoring drive.

Overall, it was great to see the spread option work again, and see someone who is making the right reads on that play. But...the passing game in every respect was absolutely terrible. 19 passes were thrown, but many more pass plays were called. No one made anything happen (besides the play by Chris Harper). Receivers dropped passes, Masoli had little touch, and threw passes late. At least we had the threat of pass, unlike when Harper was in against BSU.

Unfortunately, despite the gains in some areas, there were major regressions in others.

Defense:

Well, I wasn't too disappointed with the defense. They had a very good first half, and got screwed a bit and couldn't hold onto any interceptions in the 2nd.

But here's the main thing. Everyone was pissing about the big plays in the USC game, and the opposite of that is what we saw this weekend. We saw short passes the entire game. UCLA passed it short almost the entire game. And they didn't execute well in the 1st half, but did in the 2nd. Despite that, they still didn't manage very many points, and it should have been less, if not for one of the worst calls I have ever seen.

There were a few plays that stuck out. First, the long pass over the middle (I think on a 3rd down), into a crowd for a longish first down. This was Craft's best throw of the night. Second, the missed tackle on the short curl by Talmadge Jackson and Willie Glasper, if I recall correctly, which went for a big gain, and then TJ Ward picked up a late hit, which helped on UCLA's only real long drive of the night. Lastly, a couple plays later, a 20 yard pass down the sideline which Chung misplayed horribly. He may have been able to intercept the ball, or at least knock the receiver down, but did neither.

UCLA found themselves in decent 3rd down position all night long. It seemed like every drive they would get into an easily convertible 4-6 yards to go situation. When they got into 3rd and 7+ yards to go, they converted only 1/6, and were 2/10 on 3rd and 5+.

But props to Chow, because they did what they needed to do. They went with quick passes that didn't allow Craft time to get much pressure. Whenever his early looks didn't work, he usually went down. The D-line played an excellent game, especially Nick Reed, who is an absolute beast.

But overall, UCLA executed, and did what they needed to do, got a few breaks, and scored 24 (7 of which came after the game was basically over and it seemed like our D expected them to roll over and die). Again, they went short, got positive yardage and into favorable 3rd down positions, and moved down the field in small chunks. I can handle this, because these drives are not sustainable through an entire game. One negative play, which Oregon is good at creating, will effectively ruin a drive. When given a long field, this type of offense will not be very successful.

But honestly, I don't blame our D too much. They gave up one long scoring drive when it mattered. The others came with a shortened field, a position the offense put them in. Really, I'm surprised it wasn't worse. UCLA's average starting position was the 32 yard line. From missed field goals to 3 and outs, the defense was up against a wall most of the night, and did a good job for the most part.

Special Teams:

Well, Evensen is totally inconsistent. He has a leg, but will put it together about every other game. Returns and punting seemed average, though unfortunately, field position was severely hurt by a great game by the UCLA punter, who got very lucky multiplie times.

Conclusion:

So...the game sucked. It was not fun to watch. It was brutal and ugly. I can't take this team seriously until they pull it all together. The talent is there, but there are just too many questions at this point.

GO DUCKS!

[UPDATE] If you have not yet read Ken Woody's recap of the game, do that now.